If you want to understand what's happening in the Middle East today, you need to appreciate one fundamental fact: ISIS is losing its war for the Middle East.
This may seem hard to believe: in Iraq and Syria, the group still
holds a stretch of territory larger than the United Kingdom, manned by a
steady stream of foreign fighters. Fighters pledging themselves to ISIS
recently executed 21 Christians in Libya.
It's certainly true that ISIS remains a terrible and urgent threat to
the Middle East. The group is not on the verge of defeat, nor is its
total destruction guaranteed. But, after months of ISIS expansion and
victories, the group is now being beaten back. It is losing territory in
the places that matter. Coalition airstrikes have hamstrung its ability
to wage offensive war, and it has no friends to turn to for help. Its
governance model is unsustainable and risks collapse in the long run.
Unless ISIS starts adapting, there's a very good chance its so-called caliphate is going to fall apart.
6.3.15
ISIS is losing
